Comparative Analysis of Coal Phase-out Scenarios in the Philippines and Japan

The latest published data from their respective governments shows that the Philippines and Japan use 55% (2019) and 33% (2017) coal in their electricity generation. It is estimated that the Philippines and Japan have around 10 GW and 55 GW of coal capacity, respectively. Counter-intuitive to the Paris Agreement, data from 2019 shows that the coal capacities in both countries continue to increase. However, this is economically logical since coal remains one of the cheapest electricity sources. Nonetheless, there are calls to decommission at least the old and less efficient plants. Therefore, this study focuses on the potential coal phase-out scenarios in the Philippines and Japan to understand and compare the alternative electricity sources that could maintain energy security in both countries without drastically penalizing electric generation costs. Initially, the study will analyze the technical aspect of substituting coal with renewable energy or fuel with less CO2 emissions like natural gas or blue hydrogen. The long-term cost of these changes will then be evaluated.

This research work aims to deal with the transnational issue of the energy transition, which is vital to the continuous development of both the Philippines and Japan. These two countries represent net energy importer island nations that struggle to reduce their carbon emissions due to financial issues related to electricity generation. Japan is now one of the leading nations in adapting renewable energy into their electricity grid. In contrast, the Philippines is generally lagging since such changes will require significant investments that the country cannot afford at the moment. Although these two countries are at a different junction in their energy transition, the Philippines could learn from the cases in Japan through the comparative study. Such lessons could help prevent coal lock-in and instead invest more towards renewable energy, which is crucial since the Philippines’ energy demand is increasing. This research could bridge these two countries to solve future environmental issues that will affect everyone globally.